This coming Wednesday at the Ideas Cafe, we will be discussing hope and naivety.
When people buy lottery tickets, are they being optimistic and hopeful that they may win or are they naive to participate in such low odds of winning?
Probability is everywhere in what we do. Nothing is for sure until the outcome is revealed.
It is easy to be disheartened by the uncertainties that are ahead of us.
Without hope, why should we make an effort towards something that may not happen?
So hope is very important in overcoming the possibility of failure.
Yet we are generally much better at anecdotal evidence than assessing probability statistics. We choose lotteries base on the size of the winning prize rather than the probability of success.
We avoid dangers such as nuclear power base on the dire consequences rather than the probability of failure.
How should we decide whether we should remain hopeful and forge ahead despite effort and resources used?
Is it just a matter of better than even odds of success?
Or the probability of success in combination of the benefit from the success as in size of the lottery prize multiplied by the probability of winning?
Maybe we are in a desperate situation and we have to hope against the odds because doing nothing is just not an option?
Or should we really try harder to think of other options?
Sometimes, just the benefit of having a hopeful attitude is enough to lift our spirits. Should we be hopeful against all odds just to get the benefit of this positive attitude versus being pessimistic and down on our outlook?
We look at children and see them as naive, but we are also charmed by their innocence.
As adults, we like to think of ourselves as responsible beings and no longer are charmed by naivety in adult behavior.
A child like playful outlook is important in staying young as we grow old, is it possible to do this without being naive?
Are artists different from the general population because of their ability to see things differently, be more adventurous, maybe even naive in some of our eyes?
How do you draw the dividing line between having hope and being naive?
Its important to make assessments based on as much criteria and info as possible. What is the worst case scenario? Am I willing to risk that?
ReplyDeleteIts really difficult to know for certain what the future holds, but being nieve isn't an ideal that works in many social institutions or amongst the norm of social beings. People are conditioned to treat such beings with some disdain.
Hope can be important but has to be based on something grounded in reality. If a person is hopeful but they have no supports in their efforts it may not be enough.
If anyone places all hope in others then they can easily find despair there too.
I am somewhat hopeful that the Leafs will win the Stanley CUP!
vts